Monday, 9 November 2020

A 10 foot Pole for Pollsters


No matter who wins the 2020 Presidential election, there are a number of loses which we should be very aware of. The predicted ‘blue wave’ never happened, the predicted double digit Biden lead did not materialize, and the total biased media was exposed. So why do we have polls?

The most important election of the 21st century ended in a more divided United States. Ever since his election as President Trump in 2016, the media and the delusional Democrats have tried everything to undermine his presidency. The defeat of Hillary Clinton, resulted in the impeachment of the President based on what may turn out to be false information and evidence concocted by the Clinton campaign. Furthermore the same people, who have told us for four years that most people believe that Russia interfered in the 2016 elections, now believe that it is not possible to interfere in the 2020 elections.  Every day, for the past four years, the Democrats have vilified the President, sometimes helped by his own predilection for Tweeting.  We have never seen the hate expressed by the main stream media (MSM), who have become a front for the Democrats. They ignored Biden’s connection with China, Ukraine and Russia. There were no real questions for the candidate during the campaign. In fact the MSM made the Covid-19 Pandemic the main reason for the elections, and allowed the candidate to stay away from public scrutiny.  Of course the pandemic is real and important but they ignored the achievements and success of the President’s administration.

What is important to know is that the media used every single poll to determine how the race was being shaped. The problem is that polls, once again, have been faulty and totally wrong.  In recent past the polling industry has got it wrong several times; Brexit, Trump’s win in 2016, to name but two cases, and now the prediction of a landslide by Biden. While Pollsters do not work for the media, it seems that today there is a symbiotic relationship between the two. The media uses polls to project their preference for a candidate or an issue. The pollsters seem to ignore the use of good sampling because they want to get results that would endear themselves to the media. The lack of a new approach to sampling is very concerning. Do they deliberately sample a more favourable group for their desired outcome? While this is not proven, it does seem that their failure to get it right exposes their bias. Sampling of registered voters and the reluctance of participants to give a true answer is clouding the results of polls, and in my view is making the polling industry redundant. Polls today seem to be used for voter suppression; that is to discourage the opponent’s supporters to vote because their chosen candidate is so low in the polls.

Politicians today rely on polls for everything. It seems that no decision is being made based on political principles, but rather based on data that is geared to get a desired outcome. Polling questions are designed in such a way as to hide the real bias of the poll. The result is that when the public votes the reality does not align with the prediction. For example Trump was seen as a racist by the media, and they believed that by playing the race card they would be able to manipulate the result. Yet Trump increased his popularity in the Black, Muslim and Hispanic community. They played the fact that his behavior was so abhorrent that he would not get the votes of women. But the results show that even if he does not win, the electorate chose to vote for his accomplishments rather than his behaviour. The media and pollsters missed the fact that their definition of being “Presidential” was completely wrong. In fact the electorate viewed his behavior as one that mirrored their feelings about the establishment. This is better reflected in the ethnic community which viewed the elite of the left as the party which had used them for years.

This election was affected by a pandemic, but the media used the situation to manipulate the electorate. The MSM and the Social media never questioned Biden on the big issues. Any conflicting and controversial Biden behavior, current or past war, was never scrutinized. In fact we never learned of the real Biden platform. Social media decided that they would be the censor of public discourse on their platforms. Facebook, Tweeter and Google decided what was allowed and what was not allowed to be discussed. The same media that became the arbiter of democratic discourse decided who won the election, ignoring that there are legal actions being entertained by the Trump campaign, and the Constitution demands that it is the Electoral College that decides the result. The media is questioning the Trump challenge of the result. Their mantra is that there is no ‘evidence’ of fraud. You cannot find evidence unless you investigate, and this is exactly what Trump is demanding among the number of allegations of fraud in several states. In a democracy every legal vote should count, but illegal votes should be discarded, despite the media’s claims that they do not exist. The U.S system is fraught with loopholes that are subject to electoral fraud.

As an individual who is not an American, I have no skin in the game, but citizens of the world who still believe in democracy should be concerned. Trump the ‘Great Disruptor’ brought a different approach to politics, 71 million cannot be all wrong. Interestingly Republicans won Congressional seats and may keep the Senate majority. It is disturbing, but expected, that politicians around the world were quick to congratulate Biden. It is diplomacy. But what is disturbing is that they are all aligned to the pre 2016 doctrines of globalism.  The Obama ‘Hope and Change’ may be back, but this time with a greater propensity for progressive socialist agenda. In fact it is possible that America the capitalist leader of the world may move drastically to the left and embrace socialism like Europe.

  Whatever the result, a Biden or Trump presidency, there is one thing for certain, we should be very skeptical of the polling industry and the interpretation of polls by a biased media intent on censorship of conservative ideas.